[SMM Chrome Weekly Review] Awaiting Steel Tender Results, Market Sentiment Remains Low

On October 24, 2025, the ex-factory price of high-carbon ferrochrome in Inner Mongolia was 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in Sichuan and north-west China, the ex-factory price was 8,400-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content); in east China, the offer price was 8,500-8,600 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat WoW. For imported ferrochrome, the offer price for South African high-carbon ferrochrome was 8,100-8,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content); the offer price for Kazakh high-carbon ferrochrome was 9,100-9,400 yuan/mt (50% metal content), flat WoW.

This week, the ferrochrome market was in the doldrums. The November tender price for ferrochrome from a major stainless steel mill in northern China was flat at 8,295 yuan/mt (40% metal content), providing limited support to the market. The downstream stainless steel market underperformed in the peak season, and weak demand impacted ferrochrome procurement, with purchase willingness remaining average. Pre-holiday stockpiling by traders led to accumulated supply, forcing them to lower offers to facilitate sales. Retail ferrochrome offers in northern China fell 100 yuan WoW to the range of 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt (50% metal content). Cost side, continued declines in chrome ore prices led to loosening smelting costs for ferrochrome, weakening price support, and market pessimism emerged. Supply and demand side, ferrochrome production schedules remained high, with additional capacity releases expected, sustaining supply growth. However, actual stainless steel production may fall short of expectations, weakening demand for chrome. The tight supply situation for ferrochrome eased, maintaining a tight balance, as the market awaited tender prices from other mainstream steel mills. The ferrochrome market is expected to remain in the doldrums in the short term.

Raw material side, on October 24, 2025, the spot offer for 40-42% South African fines at Tianjin Port was 55.5-56 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% South African raw ore, it was 50-51 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 57-58 yuan/mtu; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was 58-59.5 yuan/mtu; for 40-42% Turkish chrome lump ore, it was 60-61 yuan/mtu; for 46-48% Turkish chrome concentrate, it was 65-66 yuan/mtu, down 0.25 yuan/mtu WoW. Futures side, the offer for 40-42% South African fines was $280-284/mt; for 48-50% Zimbabwean chrome concentrate, it was $340-350/mt, flat WoW.

This week, the chrome ore market continued its previous downturn, with the gap between futures and spot prices widening. Spot side, concentrated arrivals of self-purchased futures led to ample raw material inventory for buyers, limiting purchase demand release, which was mostly for rigid demand with increased pressure to drive down prices during counteroffers. The psychological price level for South African fines dropped to 54-55 yuan/mtu. Seller side, high port inventory increased sales pressure for traders, leading to lower offers for timely cash flow, but excessively low counteroffers from buyers hindered transactions, resulting in a stalemate. At the futures level, the latest overseas market offers for 40-42% South African fines remained flat at $282/mt, equivalent to a spot price of approximately 55.5 yuan/mtu. Although offers for Zimbabwean material in the overseas market have been lowered, they remain relatively high, while domestic spot prices have declined significantly. Traders, considering the high cost of holding inventory going forward, showed general purchase willingness, resulting in limited transactions. It is expected that chrome ore prices will remain in the doldrums in the short term.